Global polyethylene uye propylene profit margins icharamba yakaderera

1.Asian March petrochemical mitengo yakasanganiswa

Sekureva kweICIS Singapore, muna Kurume, zvigadzirwa zvepetrochemical pamaketani akasiyana akakosha muAsia zvakaratidza maitiro akasiyana emitengo nekuda kwekuchinja kwechiyero chekugovera uye kudiwa.Senguva yekutsikisa, hafu yezvigadzirwa makumi matatu neshanu zvepetrochemical zvakafukidzwa neICIS Asia Price Forecast yaive neavhareji mitengo yakaderera munaKurume kupfuura muna Kukadzi.

Kudiwa kwese muChina kwakatanga kupora munaKurume, ICIS yakati.Zviitiko muChina zvakagadzirirwa kuti zvitangezve sezvo zvirambidzo zvedenda zvareruka.Mitengo yepolyester muChina yakaona kukwira kwakasimba munaKurume, yakasimudzwa nekuita kwakasimba mukushanya uye zviitiko zvekunze, uye kuvharika kusingarongerwi mukota yekutanga kuchasimudzawo mutengo wepakati we acrylic acid munaKurume.Kusagadzikana kwemitengo yemafuta asina kuchena kunogona kuwedzera kusava nechokwadi nezvemaitiro emitengo.Mitengo yeUS benchmark crude West Texas Intermediate (WTI) yakadonha, ichisundira naphtha mitengo pazasi $700/mt nepakati pemwedzi.

Panguva imwecheteyo, kudiwa mune mamwe matunhu akadai sezvivakwa nemotokari muAsia kunogona kuratidza kuvandudzwa kudiki, asi hazvizove zvakakwana kudzikamisa kunetseka.Avhareji mutengo we diisononyl phthalate (DINP) uye oxo alcohols, ayo ane hukama zvakanyanya neindasitiri yekuvaka, akadonha munaKurume.Mitengo yezvimwe zvigadzirwa, senge propylene uye polypropylene (PP), icharamba ichiremerwa nehukuru hutsva.Mitengo yeEthylene yakashandukawo isina simba munaKurume, asi avhareji mitengo munaKurume yakanga ichiri yakakwira kupfuura muna Kukadzi nekuda kwekutanga kwekutanga kwaKurume.

Kudzoreredza kudiwa kweChina mukota yekutanga kwaive kwakasiyana, nekukasira kudzoreredza muzvinhu zvisina kusimba zvevatengi, asi kudzoreredza kunononoka muzvinhu zvinogara uye kudyara.Muindasitiri yekubika uye yekushanya, maererano nedatha kubva kuChina Ministry of Transport, muna Kukadzi, makumi mashanu nemana emaguta eChinese ane njanji yedhorobha uye metro akatakura vanhu vanosvika bhiriyoni mazana maviri nesere, kuwedzera kwegore negore kwe39.6%, yakakwirira kupfuura iyo. avhareji yepamwedzi yevatyairi vhoriyamu muna 2019 9.6%.Kuwedzera kwetraffic traffic mumwedzi miviri yapfuura ye2023 kunoratidzawo kupora kwakasimba mukufamba kwepakati muChina.FMCG muAsia ichafambiswa zvakanyanya nekuwedzera zviitiko zvekunze uye ichawedzera kudiwa kwemapolymers.Kurongedza kwechikafu uye kunwiwa kwechinwiwa kuchatsigira PP uye bhodhoro-giredhi polyethylene terephthalate (PET) mitengo."Kuwedzera kwekutenga zvipfeko kuchabatsira indasitiri yepolyester," akadaro muongorori mukuru weICIS Jenny Yi.

Kusavimbika kwakakosha kunoramba kuri mune dzimwe nzvimbo dzekupedzisira-mushandisi wekushandisa, zvichitungamira kune kungwarira kwemusika manzwiro.Muchikamu chemotokari, kutengesa muna Ndira naFebruary 2023 kwakadzikira gore negore sezvo mutero wekuChina wekutenga motokari yemotokari uye rubatsiro rwemotokari dzemagetsi zvinopera pakupera kwa2022. Kudiwa kubva kumhizha yekuvaka muAsia kwakaramba kusina simba.Pamusoro pezvo, kutengesa kunze kwenyika kwakaramba kusina simba pakati pekukwira kwemitengo yepasi rose uye kumanikidzwa kwepololefin.

ICIS inotenda kuti hutsva hwekugadzira huchave imwe nyaya yakakosha yakatarisana nekudzikira kwemitengo yezvimwe zvigadzirwa zvepetrochemical muAsia gore rino.Kutumirwa kwema naphtha crackers maviri makuru uye mayuniti anobuda pakati paKukadzi kuchawedzera kuwandisa zvimwe zvigadzirwa zvakaita se polyethylene (PE) uye PP.Kuenzaniswa neye ethylene indasitiri cheni, iyo propylene uye PP indasitiri cheni inonyanya kukanganiswa nehutsva hwekugadzira.Izvi zvinokonzerwa nekuti mapurojekiti mazhinji matsva epropane dehydrogenation (PDH) achatumirwa gore rino.Kubva munaKurume kusvika Kubvumbi gore rino, Asia ichave iine 2.6 miriyoni matani / gore yehutsva hwekugadzira propylene inorongwa kuiswa mukushanda.Takatarisana nepamusoro-soro mukukura kwehuwandu, mitengo yeAsia PP inotarisirwa kudzika pasi munaKurume naKubvumbi.

"Kupfuura 140,000 tonnes ethylene inotarisirwa kutumirwa kubva kuU.SA kuenda kuAsia muchikamu chechipiri, izvo zvichaita kuti manzwiro emusika ave akangwarira," akadaro Amy Yu, muongorori mukuru weCIS.Zvakare, kupihwa kwekupinda kubva kune mamwe matunhu kunogona kuchengetedza Asia ichipihwa zvakanaka mushure meKurume.PP, PE uye ethylene zvinotakura muMiddle East zviri kupora zvishoma nezvishoma sezvo kuvharika kwemwaka mudunhu kunopera mukupera kwaKurume.Nekuwedzera kwekutengesa mumusika wemuno weChina uye nemitengo yakakwira kune mamwe matunhu, vamwe vagadziri vePP vacharamba vachiendesa kunze kwenyika zvimwe zvinhu zvePP kune mamwe matunhu, anosanganisira Southeast Asia, South Asia neSouthern Africa.Uku kuyerera kwekutengesa kwakavakirwa pahwindo rearbitrage kunogona kukanganisawo maitiro emitengo mune mamwe matunhu.

2.S&P Global: Global polyethylene uye propylene profit margins icharamba yakaderera

Munguva pfupi yadarika, vakuru vakati wandei veS&P Global Commodity Insights vakataura paWorld Petrochemical Conference muHouston kuti ese maindasitiri epolyethylene nepropylene achave nemubhadharo wakaderera nekuda kwekusaenzana pakati pekupa uye kudiwa.

Jesse Tijelina, mukuru wemapolymers epasi rose kuS&P Global, akataura kuti kusaenzana kukuru pakati pekupa uye kudiwa kwapinza musika wepasi rose wepolyethylene mudhishi, uye pundutso yeindasitiri yepolyethylene inogona kusapora kusvika 2024 pakutanga, uye mamwe mafekitori achazviita. inofanira kuvharwa zvachose.

Tijelina akataura kuti kubva 2012 kusvika 2017, kukura kwekukura kwekupa uye kudiwa kwepolyethylene resin kwakada kufanana, asi huwandu hwekugadzira hwakapfuura kudiwa nematani angangoita mamirioni gumi pagore.Pakazosvika 2027, hutsva huchapfuura hunodiwa hutsva nemamiriyoni matatu emamiriyoni / gore.Nekufamba kwenguva, musika wepolyethylene uri kukura pamwero wemamiriyoni mana ematani pagore.Kana huwandu hwekuwedzera hukamiswa izvozvi, musika ucharamba uchitora makore matatu kuti udzoke."Tichitarisa kumashure muna 2022, kune vagadziri vazhinji vakavhara kwenguva pfupi zvinhu zvinodhura, uye tinotenda kuti mazhinji eakavharwa kwenguva pfupi achavharwa zvachose mune ramangwana," akadaro Tijelina.

Larry Tan, mukuru wedunhu reAsia-Pacific, akataura kuti kuwedzera kwepropane dehydrogenation (PDH) kugona kwakonzera kuwandisa kwakanyanya mumusika wepropylene, izvo zvinozochengeta purofiti yeindasitiri yepropylene yakaderera kusvika 2025. Indasitiri yepasi rose yepropylene parizvino iri padiki, uye mari yepurofiti haizogadzirike kusvika 2025 pakutanga.Muna 2022, kukwira kwemitengo yekugadzira uye kushomeka kusina simba kuchaita kuti purofiti irambe yakaderera kana kushanduka isina kunaka kune vakawanda vanogadzira propylene muAsia neEurope.Kubva 2020 kusvika 2024, polymer uye kemikari giredhi propylene kugona kukura kunotarisirwa kunge kwakapetwa ka2.3 kupfuura kukura kwekuda.

Zvisinei, Tan akatiwo margins anofanira kunge "akanaka" kune vose vanogadzira kunze kwenaphtha crackers muWestern Europe ne 2028. Maviri makuru epropylene muindasitiri yepetrochemical ndeyePDH uye refinery catalytic cracking.S&P Global inotarisira shanduko yesimba kutyaira pasi kudiwa kwepeturu, imwe yemhedzisiro ichave kudzikiswa kwekuita kwekupaza mashandiro."Saka kana kudiwa kwepasi rose kwepropylene kuchienderera mberi, kushomeka kwepropylene kunofanirwa kuzadzikiswa kumwe kunhu," Tan akadaro.PDH zvikamu hazvizoone zvakakosha purofiti kusvika ipapo.

3.OPEC's kuchekwa kwekugadzirwa kusingatarisirwe kunosimudzira kukwira kwakanyanya kwemitengo yemafuta epasi rose

Sezvo nhengo dzeSangano rePetroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dzakazivisa zvisingatarisirwi kuderedzwa kwakanyanya mukugadzirwa, mitengo yemafuta epasi rose yeramangwana yakakwira zvakanyanya neinopfuura 6% pakupera kwechitatu.

Kubva pakupera kwezuva, mutengo wemafuta asina kuchena emangwana ekuendeswa kwaMay paNew York Mercantile Exchange wakakwira madhora mazana mana nemakumi manomwe neshanu kuti uvhare pamadhora mazana masere nemakumi mana neshanu, kuwedzera kwe6.28%.London Brent crude futures for June delivery yakakwira madhora 5.04, kana 6.31%, kuvhara pamadhora mazana masere nemakumi mapfumbamwe neshanu padhiramu.

OPEC yakazivisa musi we3 kuti Joint Technical Committee yeOPEC nenyika dzisiri OPEC dzinogadzira oiri dzakacherekedza pamusangano wakaitwa pazuva rimwe chete iro nhengo dzeOPEC dzakazivisa musi we2 kuti vaizotanga chirongwa chekudzikisira kugadzirwa kwekuzvidira neavhareji yemazuva ese. yemadhiramu miriyoni 1.157 kutanga muna Chivabvu.Iyo idanho rekuchengetedza kudzikamisa musika wemafuta.Pamwe chete neavhareji yekuderedzwa kwezuva nezuva kweRussia kuderedzwa kwe500,000 dhiramu kusvika kupera kwegore rino, huwandu hwese hwekuzvidira kudzikiswa kwekugadzirwa nenyika huru dzinogadzira oiri huchasvika miriyoni 1.66 dhiramu pazuva.

Vivek Dahl, muongorori wezvemagetsi kuCommonwealth Bank yeAustralia, akati danho razvino renhengo dzeOPEC rinoratidza kuti mhedzisiro yekucheka kwekugadzira inogona kunge yakasimba kupfuura kare.

UBS Group inoenderera mberi nekuchengetedza maonero akanaka pamitengo yemafuta, ichifanotaura kuti mitengo yemafuta eBrent ichasvika madhora zana padhiramu muna Chikumi gore rino.

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