Kubva panguva yechishanu yemuno, EU "mutengo wemutengo kurongeka" pakutengeswa kwemafuta eRussia negungwa yakatanga kushanda zviri pamutemo.Mitemo mitsva ichaisa sirin'i yemutengo weUS $ 60 padhiramu yekutengeswa kwemafuta ekuRussia.
Mukupindura "kutemerwa kwemitengo" kweEU, Russia yakambotaura kuti haisi kuzopa zvigadzirwa zvemafuta nepeturu kunyika dzinotemesa mitengo pamafuta ekuRussia.Mutengo uyu uchakanganisa sei dambudziko remagetsi rekuEurope?Ndeipi mikana yakanaka yekutengesa kunze kwenyika kumusika wemakemikari wepamba?
Kugadzirisa mitengo kuchashanda here?
Chekutanga, ngationei kana mutengo uyu unoshanda?
Maererano nemushumo uri pawebhusaiti yemagazini yeAmerican National Interests, vakuru vakuru veAmerica vanotenda kuti kusirin'i kwemutengo kunogonesa vatengi kuve nekujeka kwemutengo uye kuwedzera.Kunyange kana Russia ichiedza kudarika mutengo wekutengesa nevatengi kunze kwemubatanidzwa, mari yavo icharamba yakaora mwoyo.
Nekudaro, dzimwe nyika dzakakura dzingangotadza kutevedzera mutengo wesirin'i system uye dzinovimba nemabasa einishuwarenzi kunze kweiyo yeEU kana G7.Chimiro chakaomarara chemusika wepasi rose wezvigadzirwa zvinopawo mukana wekumashure wemafuta eRussia pasi pezvirango kuwana purofiti yakawanda.
Maererano nemushumo weNational Interest, kugadzwa kwe "mutengi's cartel" hakuna kumboitika.Kunyangwe iyo pfungwa inotsigira mutengo wemafuta iine hungwaru, hurongwa hwekuganhura mutengo hunongowedzera kusagadzikana kwemusika wepasi rose wesimba, asi hauzove nekukanganisa zvakanyanya mukuderedza mari yemafuta eRussia.Muzviitiko zvese izvi, fungidziro dzevagadziri vemitemo yekumadokero nezve mhedzisiro uye mutengo wezvematongerwo enyika wehondo yavo yehupfumi neRussia ichabvunzwa.
The Associated Press yakashuma pa 3rd kuti mutengo we $ 60 haugone kukuvadza Russia, ichitaura vaongorori.Parizvino, mutengo weRussia Ural crude oil wadzikira pasi pemadhora makumi matanhatu, ukuwo mutengo weLondon Brent crude oil futures uri madhora makumi masere nemashanu padhiramu.The New York Post yakataura mashoko evanoongorora JPMorgan Chase kuti kana divi reRussia rikatsiva, mutengo wemafuta unogona kukwira kusvika pamadhora mazana matatu nemakumi masere padhiramu.
Aimbove Gurukota reMari yeUS Mnuchin akambotaura kuti nzira yekudzikamisa mutengo wemafuta asina kuchena eRussia haigoneki chete, asiwo izere nemaburi.Akataura kuti "zvichitungamirwa neEurope kutengwa kwemafuta akacheneswa kunze kwenyika, mafuta asina kuchena eRussia anogona kuramba achiyerera achienda kuEurope neUnited States pasina zvirambidzo chero bedzi ichipfuura nemuzviteshi zvekufambisa, uye kugadzirisa kwakawedzerwa kukosha kwezviteshi zvekufambisa ndiko kwakanakira hupfumi. , izvo zvichakurudzira India neTürkiye kuwedzera nhamburiko dzadzo dzekutenga mafuta asina kuchena eRussia uye kunatsa zvigadzirwa zvemafuta akacheneswa pamwero mukuru, izvo zvingangove nzvimbo itsva yekusimudzira hupfumi hwenyika idzi dzinopfuura.
Iyi nguva pasina mubvunzo yakadzamisa dambudziko remagetsi rekuEurope.Kunyange zvazvo kugadzirwa kwegasi renyika dzakawanda dzeEurope kwakazara, maererano nekutaura kweRussia ikozvino uye maitiro emangwana eRussia hondo yeUkraine, Russia haingapindi nyore pane izvi, uye zvichida mutengo wekutengesa unongova fungidziro.
Gurukota rezvekunze reRussia, Sergei Lavrov, akataura nemusi waZvita 1 kuti Russia haifarire kudzika kwemitengo yemafuta ekuRussia, nekuti Russia ichapedzisa kutengeserana nevadyidzani vayo uye haizopi mafuta kune nyika dzinotsigira kuiswa kwemafuta eRussia. mutengo sirin'i.Pazuva rimwe chetero, Mutevedzeri Wokutanga weCentral Bank yeRussia Yudayeva akati mumakore achangopfuura, misika yemafuta yepasi rose yakambosangana nekuchinja kwechisimba.Upfumi hweRussia uye hurongwa hwemari hwakaratidza kusimba kune zvinokonzerwa nemusika wemagetsi, uye Russia yakagadzirira chero shanduko.
Matanho ekudzikamisa mutengo weoiri achatungamira mukuwaniswa kwemafuta epasirese here?
Kubva pamaonero ehurongwa hwekuti Europe neUnited States hadzina kuvharisa zvachose kuRussia mafuta kunze kwenyika, asi dzakatora matanho esirin'i, Europe neUnited States vanotarisira kudzikisa mutengo wehondo muMoscow uye edza kusakanganisa mafuta epasi rose. kupa uye kudiwa.Zvinofanotaurwa kubva pazvinhu zvitatu zvinotevera kuti mwero unokwanisika wemutengo wemafuta hauzotungamira kune kuomarara kwemafuta uye kudiwa.
Chekutanga, mutengo wepamusoro wemadhora makumi matanhatu mutengo usingazokonzerese kutadza kweRussia kutengesa mafuta kunze kwenyika.Isu tinoziva kuti avhareji mutengo wekutengesa wemafuta eRussia kubva munaJune kusvika Gumiguru yaive madhora makumi manomwe nerimwe, uye mutengo wekuderedzwa weRussia mafuta ekutengesa kunze kwenyika kuIndia muna Gumiguru yaive madhora makumi matanhatu nemashanu.MunaNovember, pasi pesimba remafuta ekudzikamisa mitengo, mafuta eUral akadonha pasi pe60 yuan kakawanda.Musi waMbudzi 25, mutengo wekutumira mafuta eRussia kuPrimorsk Port waingova madhora makumi mashanu neshanu, angangoita 40% yakaderera pane Brent crude oil.Muna 2021 uye zvisati zvaitika, mutengo wekutengesa wemafuta eRussia unowanzo kuderera kupfuura madhora makumi matanhatu.Nokudaro, hazvibviri kuti Russia isatengesa mafuta pamberi pemutengo wakaderera kupfuura $ 60.Kana Russia ikasatengesa oiri, icharasikirwa nehafu yemari yayo yemari.Pachava nematambudziko makuru mukushanda kwenyika uye kurarama kwemauto.Naizvozvo,
matanho ekudzikamisa mutengo haatungamirire mukuderedzwa kwemafuta epasi rose.
Chechipiri, mafuta eVenezuela achadzokera kuJianghu, inova yambiro kuRussia.
Manheru ekupinda zviri pamutemo kurambidzwa kwemafuta asina kuchena uye mutengo wemafuta, Mutungamiriri weUS Biden akangoerekana aburitsa nhau dzakanaka kuVenezuela.Musi wa26 Mbudzi, Treasury yeUS yakabvumira hofori yesimba Chevron kuti itangezve bhizinesi rayo rekuongorora mafuta muVenezuela.
Zvinofanira kucherechedzwa kuti mumakore achangopfuura, United States yakatevedzana yakatemesa nyika nhatu dzinogadzira simba, dzinoti Iran, Venezuela neRussia.Zvino, kuitira kudzivirira kuramba kweRussia kushandisa zvombo zvesimba, United States inoburitsa oiri yeVenezuelan kuti itarise uye kuenzanisa.
Shanduko yepolicy yehurumende yeBiden chiratidzo chakajeka.Mune ramangwana, kwete Chevron chete, asiwo mamwe makambani emafuta anogona kutangazve bhizinesi ravo rekuongorora mafuta muVenezuela chero nguva.Parizvino, kugadzirwa kwemafuta ezuva nezuva kweVenezuela kunosvika 700000 mbiya, nepo pamberi pezvirango, kugadzirwa kwayo kwezuva nezuva kwemafuta kwakapfuura mamirioni matatu.Nyanzvi dzemaindasitiri dzinofanotaura kuti huwandu hwekugadzirwa kwemafuta eVenezuela huchakurumidza kudzoreredza miriyoni imwe yemadhiramu pazuva mukati memwedzi miviri kusvika mitatu.Mukati mehafu yegore, inogona kupora kusvika kumamiriyoni matatu emadhiramu pazuva.
Chechitatu, mafuta eIran ari kukwesha maoko.Mumwedzi mitanhatu yapfuura, Iran yanga ichitaurirana neEurope neUnited States, ichitarisira kushandisa nyaya yenyukireya mukuchinjana nekubvisa zvirango zvemafuta uye kuwedzera mafuta kunze kwenyika.Hupfumi hweIran hwave hwakaoma zvikuru mumakore achangopfuura, uye mhirizhonga yemumba yakawedzera.Inoramba ichiwedzera kutengeswa kwemafuta kunze kwenyika kuti urarame.Kamwe Russia yadzikisira kutengeswa kwemafuta kunze kwenyika, mukana wakanaka weIran kuti iwedzere kutengeswa kwemafuta.
Chechina, sezvo nyika zhinji dziri kuramba dzichikwidza mitengo yemhindu kudzora inflation, kukura kwehupfumi hwenyika kuchadzikira muna 2023, uye kudiwa kwesimba kuchadzikira.OPEC yakafanotaura zvakadaro kwenguva zhinji.Kunyangwe Europe neUnited States dzikaisa zvirango zvesirin'i zvemutengo pasimba reRussia, mafuta epasirese epasi rose anogona kuwana chiyero chakakosha.
Mutengo wemafuta uchaita kuti mitengo yemafuta ikwire zvakanyanya here?
Musi waZvita 3, pamberi pemutengo wemafuta ekuRussia waizoshandiswa muna Zvita 5, mitengo yemafuta yeBrent yeramangwana yakanga yakadzikama, ichivhara pamadhora makumi masere neshanu neshanu pabhari, 1,68% yakaderera kupfuura zuva rekutanga rekutengesa.Zvichienderana nekuongorora kwakadzama kwezvinhu zvakasiyana-siyana, mutengo wemafuta unogona kungodzikisa mutengo wemafuta pasi, asi kwete kutungamira mukukwira kwemutengo wemafuta.Sezvinongoitawo nyanzvi dzegore rino dzaikurudzira kuti zvirango zvakatemerwa Russia zvichakonzera kuti mitengo yemafuta ikwire vatadza kuona mutengo wemafuta unosvika zana nemakumi mashanu emadhora, havasi kuzoona mutengo wemafuta unodarika zana remadhora unogona kutora mavhiki maviri muna 2023.
Chekutanga, chiyero pakati pekupihwa kwemafuta epasi rose uye kudiwa kwakavambwa mushure mehondo.Mushure memhirizhonga yekugovera uye kudiwa muchikamu chechipiri, Europe yakavakazve nzira itsva yekugovera mafuta isingavimbi neRussia, inova hwaro hwekuderera kwemitengo yemafuta epasi rose muchikamu chechitatu.Panguva imwecheteyo, kunyange zvazvo nyika mbiri dzeRussia dzine ushamwari dzakawedzera chikamu chekutenga mafuta kubva kuRussia, ivo vose vakaramba vari pa20%, vasingasviki kutsamira kweEU pamafuta eRussia anenge 45% pamberi pe2021. Kunyange kana kugadzirwa kwemafuta eRussia kuchimira. , hazvizove nekukanganisa kwakakomba pakuwanikwa kwemafuta epasi rose.
Chechipiri, Venezuela neIran vakamirira neshungu chinzvimbo chepamusoro.Hunhu hwekugadzira oiri hwenyika mbiri idzi hunogona kudzikamisa zvachose kudzikira kwemafuta kunokonzerwa nekudzimwa kwekugadzirwa kwemafuta eRussia.Kupihwa uye kudiwa kwakanyatso kuenzana, uye mutengo haugone kukwira.
Chechitatu, kuvandudzwa kwemasimba matsva akadai sesimba remhepo uye simba rezuva, pamwe nekuvandudzwa kwebioenergy, kuchatsiva kudiwa kweimwe petrochemical simba, inova chimwe chezvinhu zvinodzivirira kukwira kwemitengo yemafuta.
Chechina, mushure mekushandiswa kweRussia denga remafuta, zvichibva pahukama hwekuenzanisa mutengo, kukwira kwemafuta asiri eRussia kuchamanikidzwa nemutengo wakaderera wemafuta eRussia.Kana Middle East Petroleum 85 neRussia Petroleum 60 vane hukama hwakadzikama hwekuenzanisa mutengo, kana mutengo weMiddle East petroleum uchikwira zvakanyanya, vamwe vatengi vanoyerera vachienda kuRussia Petroleum.Kana mutengo wemafuta kuMiddle East uchidonha zvakanyanya pahwaro hwe85, Europe neUnited States dzichadzikisa mutengo wesiringi yemafuta eRussia, kuitira kuti mitengo miviri isvike pakuenzanisa patsva.
Western "price limit order" inomutsa musika wemagetsi
Russia inoda kutanga "mubatanidzwa wegasi rechisikigo"
Zvinonzi vamwe vaongorori nevakuru vakuru vakayambira kuti kumadokero "kutemerwa kwemitengo" kunogona kutsamwisa Moscow ndokuita kuti ibvise gasi rechisikigo kunyika dzeEurope.Kubva muna Ndira kusvika muna Gumiguru gore rino, nyika dzeEurope dzakaunza 42% yakawanda gasi rakanyungudutswa kubva kuRussia kupfuura nguva imwe cheteyo muna 2021. Kupihwa kweRussia kwegasi rakanyungudutswa kunyika dzeEurope kwakasvika rekodhi 17,8 bhiriyoni cubic metres.
Zvakataurwawo kuti Russia yakanga ichikurukura nezvekugadzwa kwe "gasi remubatanidzwa" neKazakhstan neUzbekistan.Mutauriri wemutungamiri weKazakh, Kassym Jomart Tokayev, akati ichi idanho rakaiswa nemutungamiri weRussia Putin.
Peskov akataura kuti pfungwa yekumisikidza mubatanidzwa yainyanya kubva pakutariswa kwehurongwa hwekugovera simba, asi ruzivo rwakanga rwuchiri munhaurirano.Peskov akataura kuti Kazakhstan inogona kuchengetedza "makumi emabhiriyoni emadhora akashandiswa pamapaipi" nekuunza kunze gasi rechisikigo reRussia.VaPeskov vakatiwo hurongwa uhu hunotarisira kuti nyika nhatu idzi dzichasimbaradza kudyidzana uye kuvandudza mashandisirwo adzo egasi mudzimba uye zvivakwa zvekufambisa.
Mukana wemusika uripi?
Kushaikwa kwesimba muEurope uye kukwira kwakanyanya kwemutengo kuchakonzera kumwe kushomeka kwegasi rechisikigo rinoshandiswa mukugadzirwa kwemaindasitiri, uye mutengo wekugadzirwa kwemakemikari eEurope uchakwira zvakanyanya.Panguva imwecheteyo, kuperevedza kwesimba uye kudhura kwakanyanya kunogona kutungamirira mukuderedzwa kwemutoro wemiti yemakemikari emunharaunda, zvichiita kuti pave nemukaha mukuru mukugovera kwemakemikari, zvichiwedzera kukurudzira kukwira kwakanyanya kwemutengo wezvigadzirwa zvemunharaunda muEurope.
Parizvino, mutsauko wemutengo wezvimwe zvigadzirwa zvemakemikari pakati peChina neEurope uri kuwedzera, uye huwandu hwekutengesa kunze kwezvigadzirwa zvemakemikari zveChinese zvinotarisirwa kuwedzera zvakanyanya.Mune ramangwana, mukana wekupa weChina musimba rechinyakare uye simba idzva unotarisirwa kuenderera mberi, mukana wemutengo wemakemikari echiChinese ane chekuita neEurope ucharamba uripo, uye kukwikwidza kwepasirese uye kuita pundutso kweindasitiri yemakemikari yeChina kunotarisirwa kuwedzera.
Guohai Securities anotenda kuti chikamu chezvino chekugadzirwa kwemakemikari ekutanga chiri mumamiriro akanaka: pakati pavo, pane tarisiro yekuvandudzwa kwemukati mumusha weimba yeimba, iyo yakanaka kune polyurethane uye soda ash sectors;Kuvirisa kwesimba reEuropean energy, kutarisisa mhando dzevhitamini dzine hunyanzvi hwekugadzira muEurope;Iyo yakadzika phosphorus makemikari indasitiri cheni ine hunhu hwekurima kemikari indasitiri uye kutsva kwesimba kukura;The tire sector iyo purofiti inodzorerwa zvishoma nezvishoma.
Polyurethane: Kune rimwe divi, kuunzwa kweChikamu 16 cheiyo real estate mari yekutsigira mutemo kuchabatsira kuvandudza muganho wemusika wedzimba uye kusimudzira kudiwa kwepolyurethane;Kune rimwe divi, kugona kwekugadzira kweMDI neTDI muEurope kunopa chikamu chepamusoro.Kana dambudziko remagetsi rikaramba richivira, kubuda kweMDI neTDI muEurope kunogona kudzikira, izvo zvakanakira kutengesa zvigadzirwa zvepamba kunze kwenyika.
Soda ash: Kana misika yemumba inovandudzwa zvishoma nezvishoma, zvichave zvakanaka kuti kudiwa kwegirazi rakafuratira kugadziriswe.Panguva imwecheteyo, hutsva hutsva hwegirazi re photovoltaic huchafambisawo kudiwa kwe soda ash.
Mavhitamini: Kukwanisa kugadzira vhitamini A uye vhitamini E muEurope kunoverengera chikamu chikuru.Kana dambudziko resimba reEuropean rikaramba richivirisa, kubuda kwevhitamini A nevhitamini E kunogona kudzikira zvakare, zvichitsigira mutengo.Pamusoro pezvo, purofiti yekupfuya nguruve yakawedzera zvishoma nezvishoma munguva pfupi iri kutevera, izvo zvinotarisirwa kukurudzira kufarira kwevarimi kuwedzera, zvichikurudzira kudiwa kwevhitamini nezvimwe zvinowedzera zvekudya.
Phosphorus kemikari indasitiri: Nekuburitswa kwechando chekuchengetedza kudiwa kwefetereza, mutengo wefosifata fetiraiza unotarisirwa kudzikama nekukwira;Panguva imwecheteyo, kudiwa kwesimbi phosphate yemotokari nyowani simba uye kuchengetedza kwesimba kunoramba kwakasimba.
Matayi: Muchikamu chekutanga, sezvo matai akavharirwa muAmerica zviteshi akashandurwa kuita mutengesi wekutengesa, kuverenga kweAmerican channels kwaive kwakakwirira, asi.
Nekusimudzirwa kwekuenda kunzvimbo inochengeterwa zvinhu, maodha ekunze emabhizinesi ematayi anotarisirwa kupora zvishoma nezvishoma.
Nhoroondo ye JinDun Chemicaline OEM kugadzirisa zvidyarwa muJiangsu, Anhui nedzimwe nzvimbo dzakabatirana kwemakumi emakore, ichipa tsigiro yakasimba yemasevhisi ekugadzira emakemikari akakosha.JinDun Chemical inoomerera pakugadzira timu ine zviroto, kugadzira zvigadzirwa zvine chiremerera, zvine hungwaru, zvine hungwaru, uye enda zvese kunze kuti uve shamwari yakavimbika uye shamwari yevatengi!Edza kugadzirazvinhu zvitsva zvemakemikarikuunza ramangwana riri nani panyika!
Nguva yekutumira: Jan-03-2023